The date for the final stage of the roadmap out of lockdown is fast approaching. But will the spread of the Indian Covid variant delay the planned easing of all restrictions?
Step four, the final stage of the government’s roadmap for lifting lockdown includes removing all legal limits on social contact, reopening of nightclubs, and lifting restrictions on large events and live performances.
The 21 June is the earliest possible date for the fourth and final stage of the roadmap out of lockdown, something the government has always stressed. The country has been looking forward to a return to normal pre-pandemic life and freedom next month. But whether this will happen or not still hangs in the balance.
The strain of virus first detected in India is now dominant in the UK, causing doubt as to whether the Prime Minister will be able to end England’s lockdown on 21 June, as planned. Matt Hancock said in a press conference that the Indian variant is now responsible for up to 75% of all new Covid infections in the UK.
Over the last week, numbers of cases of the Indian variant have doubled from 3,424 to 6,959. Although part of the reason for the increase could be because of all the extra testing. Despite the high number of cases, there were only 10 deaths. This suggests the vaccination rollout is working to break the link between infection and serious illness.
Cases of the Indian Covid variant remain mostly in the identified hotspot areas, with Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn with Darwen still the worst affected places. But according to Public Health England, the majority of the country all now have instances of the variant, showing it is still spreading.
Too early to tell
At the moment, both Prime Minister Boris Johnson and business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng say there is no evidence to suggest things can’t go ahead as planned. But the PM also says we may need to “wait a little bit longer to see what’s happening”.
It was always expected that numbers of Covid cases would rise as more and more restrictions eased. But as infections begin to increase again, the important thing to look at is the number of people in hospital and impact on the NHS.
Another good sign that we are on the right track is the success of the vaccination programme. Over 38.6 million people in the UK have had their first jab, and 24 million have received their second dose.
The government are being careful not to rush into any decisions, and are closely monitoring all scientific data on a daily basis. They are analysing number of deaths, hospitalisations, and effectiveness of the vaccine. They are continuing to review the situation and expect a final announcement on 14 June. Experts are still concerned over the transmission of the Indian variant, so data from the next few weeks is critical.
Mr Kwarteng says that right now it is “impossible for anyone to know what the situation will be like in a week or two weeks’ time”. No guarantees can be made at this stage.
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