The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) warns a ‘significant risk’ of an Autumn lockdown. Freedom could be short lived as rising cases of coronavirus could mean return of restrictions that have just been eased.
Government scientists fear freedom from Covid limits could last only weeks as concern grows over the possibility of imposing another lockdown in the autumn. Cases of infections continue to rise, posing a ‘significant risk’ of restrictions having to make a return.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Monday that the final stage of the roadmap out of lockdown will happen on 19 July, as most Covid laws are removed. However, both he and Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty admit it will probably result in a rise in cases and deaths.
‘Stronger measures’
SAGE warn that if a ‘variant of concern’ that threatens immunity does arrive, lockdown will need to return, and last longer. This could mean re-instating Covid restrictions only weeks after they are relaxed. With lockdowns coming in by autumn, going into winter, as a result. They say “stronger measures may be desirable”.
The scientists expect another coronavirus wave to occur, even if baseline measures reduce transmission by 25 per cent. But without these limits in place, it will be much higher. Baseline measures include wearing face coverings, symptomatic testing, isolation after a positive test or close contact, social distancing, and certificates showing a negative test or vaccination.
The highest risk of exposure and transmission is by close physical contact, so measures on distancing are most beneficial. The report from SAGE says even after adults have all received offers of a vaccination, some measures remaining in place through summer and beyond will decrease the spread. Risks are likely higher in the autumn and winter months, so measures may need varying at different times of year, to stay effective and have the same impact.
SAGE fear that “lifting restrictions may recreate the conditions for super-spreader events”. This could be driven by one infectious person visiting multiple places. Or it could come from the setting, with overcrowding and lack of ventilation, eg. nightclubs, religious events or live performances.
‘Weakened link’
Covid cases continually surge, and are at their highest level since January. Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance says cases are doubling every nine days, and hospitalisations are rising steeply. He expects this to continue. With regards to the vaccine, he says, “it’s a weakened link, not a completely broken link”.
Professor Whitty adds, the epidemic is “clearly significant and rising”. He expects the winter will no doubt have its challenges. The NHS will have to contend with Covid and other respiratory viruses supressed by the lockdown last year. However, he expects herd immunity to kick in. The number of Covid cases will peak when restrictions lift, but fall again before the NHS are overwhelmed.
The PM views summer as a “firebreak”. He thinks it is better to reopen now instead of in the more “difficult” winter time, or delaying until next year. We have done so much already to fight the virus with the vaccination programme, and need to take advantage of the school holidays. Mr Johnson asks, if we don’t do this now “when would we go ahead?”.
Thank you for reading Autumn lockdown warning as Covid restrictions ease
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