Lockdown Lifting: The Key Criteria to Look for

The government is making a difficult decision over the next few days on the lifting of all lockdown restrictions.

There is a lot of people who can’t wait to return back to normal life promised by the final stage of the government’s roadmap out of lockdown.

However, the set day of 21 June is not definite, ministers always said it was only the earliest date possible. There are a number of factors that will affect whether or not it can go ahead. Government need to consider the current state of the pandemic.

Here are the four key things they are looking at before formalising a final decision.

1. Number of hospital admissions

There are currently only around 1,000 people in hospital because of Covid in the UK. This number is well below the near 40,000 peak in January. But numbers are creeping up, with 5% more people in hospital than a week ago.

Although those being hospitalised with coronavirus now are not as seriously ill as people in earlier waves of the virus. They are younger, or don’t need as much intensive care, so recover and leave sooner.

This is good news that this wave is not the same or as bad as previous ones. But if infections and admissions continue rising, the number of people in hospital will soon mount up. There is already a noticeable increase of Covid hospitalisations in areas of the UK hit hardest by the “third wave”. Numbers of people in hospital are rising faster there than anywhere else in the UK.

2. Rate of rising infections

The main type of coronavirus in the UK is now the Delta variant, first identified in India. According to Health Secretary Matt Hancock, it is “at least 40%” more transmissible than the Alpha variant, first detected in Kent, that triggered the winter wave.

Covid infections are rising again in the UK as the Delta variant spreads. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest that UK infections rose by 60% in just a single week.

If the rate of growth stays the same or speeds up, it means cases could rise fairly quickly if and when society reopens further.

But rising infections is not a reason to extend lockdown in its own right. The key thing to note is whether the increase in cases “risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS”.

3. Chance of becoming seriously ill if infected

It is hard to for scientists to predict what proportion of coronavirus cases will require treatment. This is because the chance of getting seriously ill is reduced by having a vaccine.

Over 40% of the UK population have now received two doses of the Covid vaccine, and they make up less than 5% of those admitted to hospital with the Delta variant. It looks as though people need two jabs to get high levels of protection from that variant.

People need to receive their two jabs now as soon as possible, before the virus has a chance to spread enough to the vulnerable, or put pressure on the NHS.

4. Number of people fully vaccinated

Over 50% of adults in the UK have received two doses of the Covid vaccine. Even if you add in people who built up immunity from having the virus, it is still a long way from achieving herd immunity.

If on average, each infected person passes the virus on to six others, then five out of six people, not just adults, need to be able to fight it off. This would be the “herd immunity threshold”. If the Delta variant is more infectious, then the threshold could be even higher.

However, the spread is helped to slow down by every person vaccinated.

Thank you for reading Lockdown Lifting: The Key Criteria to Look for

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