The MI5 warn that the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban could increase the threat of a terror attack in the UK.
MI5 director general Ken McCallum thinks the rise of the Taliban could “embolden” UK terrorists, with the event in Afghanistan acting as a “morale boost” for extremists. Although he does not think the terror threat will change overnight, the UK must stay “vigilant” to look out for a rise in “inspired terrorism”.
In the past four years, 31 late-stage attack plots have been stopped, six of these during the pandemic.
The majority of plots are by Islamic extremist, but there is a “growing number” of attack plans from extreme right-wing terrorists.
“A real and enduring thing”
Mr McCallum says the terrorist threat to the UK is “a real and enduring thing”.
Speaking on the day before the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks in the US, he says that small scale acts by terrorists in the UK make up the biggest proportion of threats the MI5 face. He is in “no doubt that events in Afghanistan will have heartened and emboldened some of those extremists”. This is why the organisation focus on staying vigilant to potential risks and threats. But he also warns of a risk of a rise in larger plots by terrorism groups like al-Qaeda.
The government are judging the Taliban by their actions, but the UK security service is planning for the possibility “more risk, progressively, may flow our way”.
While threats don’t usually change overnight as they take time to build, there could be an instant psychological shift and boost in morale. It could spur on extremists who are already in the country.
Mr McCallum believes the 20 year effort on reducing terrorist threat from Afghanistan is mainly successful. But it is hard to say whether the UK is safer or not than at the time of the 9/11 attacks.
Islamic State has “managed to do something that al-Qaeda did not” by inspiring many people to try smaller scale terrorism acts. The MI5 need to watch out for an increase in “inspired terrorism which has become a real trend” over the last five to 10 years. They also need stay aware of any “potential regrowth of al Qaeda-style directed plots.”
Security issues
Terrorism has largely dominated the MI5’s work over the past twenty years.
The attacks on 7 July 2005 led to a full understanding that threat came from within the country as well as from overseas. By the time the 10th anniversary of 9/11 came around, the MI5 thought the threat from al-Qaeda was dying down, so could return to looking at other issues of concern. But a new group, Islamic State, emerged from Syria and Iraq, starting a new wave of terrorism.
Over the last couple of years, jihadist threat appeared to be slowing as MI5 shifted focus to Russia and China, and extreme-right wing activity.
But recent events in Afghanistan sparks fears that the jihadist threat could evolve again. The rise of the Taliban and withdrawal of US and UK troops could inspire people to act. There is time for extremist groups to form and organise sophisticated attacks.
Mr McCallum says that the sad truth is that terrorism threats are “part of our lives at this time in history” and will stay with us “for quite some time to come”. MI5 work hard to stop attacks happening but know it isn’t always possible on every occasion. They have saved thousands of lives, but “cannot always succeed”.
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